NOAA warns warming Pacific threatens food supplies
Sea temperatures in the equatorial Pacific have surged toward records months ahead of their usual winter peak.
The story continues
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In a nutshell
The equatorial Pacific Ocean has heated up at an extraordinary pace, reaching near-record temperatures in September months before the usual winter peak. Depending on whether scientists measure absolute local warmth or adjust for generally warmer tropical oceans worldwide, daily readings either slightly exceed or trail past milestones from 2015 and 1982. With all 22 major climate models predicting these extreme conditions will persist through early 2027, the primary concern is severe global weather disruptions that threaten harvests and could leave tens of millions facing acute food shortages.
Highlights
- Daily central Pacific temperatures reached +3.07°C above baseline in September, statistically matching the record set in November 2015.
- All 22 major climate forecast models project the Pacific warming pattern will remain very strong through the coming winter.
- The United Nations World Food Programme warns weather shocks from this warming could push 49 million people into acute hunger across 45 countries.
- When broader tropical ocean warming is subtracted, relative Pacific temperatures sit roughly 0.7°C below the record high set in 1982-83.
Central equatorial Pacific ocean temperature anomaly
°CThe findingSea surface temperatures in the key central Pacific tracking zone rose by 2.6°C between May and September.
- The rapid rise in central equatorial Pacific surface warmth from May through mid-September 2026.
- Central equatorial Pacific ocean temperature anomaly — How much warmer the Niño-3.4 ocean surface area is compared to average historical levels
- Shows how quickly the ocean heated ahead of its normal winter peak, locking in weather disruptions worldwide.
From the Editor’s Diary
A weather milestone depends on the ruler used to measure it, but the physical consequences on the ground do not. Whether this ocean warming breaks an absolute record or merely matches past peaks, the impact on rainfall, crops and food supplies remains just as severe.
Who's involved
NOAA Climate Prediction Center
the United States government climate agency that officially monitors tropical Pacific weather patterns
goal → track Pacific ocean temperatures accurately, separate local warming from broader climate change and forecast upcoming seasonal risks
World Meteorological Organization
the United Nations agency that coordinates global weather forecasts
goal → alert world governments and aid groups to severe weather risks from the strengthening Pacific warming pattern
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Australia's national weather service
goal → measure Pacific warming against historical records to determine if the event is entering unprecedented territory
International Research Institute for Climate and Society
a Columbia University climate research centre
goal → track ocean indicators and compare 22 independent computer models forecasting the Pacific warming
Julia Cole and research collaborators
climate scientists studying ancient ocean records
goal → analyze 1,000 years of Galápagos coral layers to see whether modern Pacific warming cycles exceed pre-industrial natural variability
World Food Programme
the United Nations emergency food agency
goal → prepare vulnerable communities for droughts and floods that could leave tens of millions without enough food
In short
An unusually rapid surge of ocean heat across the equatorial Pacific threatens to disrupt global weather patterns, damage crops and trigger extreme weather through early 2027.
The most direct outcome is a major spike in global humanitarian stress, with United Nations agencies warning that droughts and floods could push 49 million more people into acute hunger across 45 vulnerable countries.
This disruption is likely because every major climate model now forecasts the ocean warming to stay at very strong levels through the coming winter, though scientists stress that sea-surface records depend on which measuring baseline is used.
Previously in this story
UN weather agency warns El Niño threatens food supplies
28 August 2026Pacific warming is accelerating toward an exceptional late-2026 peak as hunger risks spread across 45 nations.
How it unfolded
Heat gathers beneath the Pacific
A deep reservoir of warm water began expanding below the surface of the equatorial Pacific while a cooler ocean phase lingered above. NOAA tracked this hidden heat build-up through the late winter, pointing to a rapid shift toward a warming phase. By early June, the surface had warmed enough for agencies to warn that a full El Niño pattern had arrived.
Deep ocean heat reaches the surface
The warm water pool rose to the surface and altered winds across the central Pacific. NOAA issued formal advisories confirming that the ocean and atmosphere had coupled into a warming pattern, while international agencies warned governments that shifts in seasonal rainfall were becoming increasingly likely.
Warming winds and waters reinforce each other
As surface waters warmed, trade winds slackened further, halting the normal rise of cool deep water and trapping heat in the eastern Pacific. By August, underwater heat anomalies reached extreme levels. During the same period, ancient coral data showed that modern Pacific temperature swings have grown significantly wider than in the centuries before industrial emissions, though researchers note this does not prove every degree of recent warming was man-made.
Models project historic intensity months early
By September, forecasters across the globe warned that the Pacific was heating far faster than normal. Major computer models projected eastern Pacific anomalies reaching +3.6°C, while Australian monitors noted sea surface conditions had climbed past modern historical benchmarks. While informal headlines described the event as a super El Niño, official agencies categorized the phenomenon as very strong.
The record depends on the ruler
In mid-September, daily measurements in the central Pacific touched roughly +3.07°C above baseline averages, tying or slightly edging past the daily mark set in late 2015. However, whether this marks an absolute all-time high depends entirely on how scientists measure it. When researchers subtract the background warming that has lifted the entire tropical ocean, relative heat indices remain below the peak set in the 1982-83 event.
Where things stand
The equatorial Pacific has warmed to near-unprecedented levels months earlier in the year than in any modern event. Fixed thirty-year benchmarks place daily temperatures just above the 2015 high, while rolling averages show the event statistically tied with 2015. Measures that strip out broader global ocean heating place current temperatures below the 1982-83 peak.
Scientists emphasize that single-day ocean temperature readings are preliminary and often fluctuate. The full climatic impact of the event will be judged over three-month averages running into winter, with NOAA issuing its next diagnostic update on October 8.