We analyzed this claim: is it true that

Democratic advantages in early voting show Democrats are winning the 2026 midterms?

Early Turnout Shows Who Voted, Not Who WinsAI generatedDebunked

Early-voting figures reveal who cast ballots, not which candidates received them, leaving the final outcome unknown.

Politics

Early Turnout Shows Who Voted, Not Who Wins

Millions of early ballots reveal strong voter participation but cannot predict election winners.

Published
NRB — News Republic Brigade

Other links

University of Florida Election LabDemocratic PartyRepublican Party

In a nutshell

More than 34 million Americans cast early ballots for the 2026 midterm elections, showing heavy initial participation by registered Democrats in several key states. While early numbers reveal how many citizens are participating, secret ballots protect each voter's choices, meaning no lead or winner can be established until all votes are counted on November 3.

Highlights

  • More than 34 million Americans had voted in the midterm elections by the afternoon of October 27.
  • Registered Democrats made up 45 percent of early voters in 27 reporting states, while Republicans made up 31 percent and unaffiliated voters 24 percent.
  • Georgia recorded 188,667 in-person ballots on its opening day, surpassing its 2022 first-day total by roughly 40 percent.
  • Texas reported more than 4.2 million early ballots during its first six days of early voting.

Early Voters by Party Registration Across 27 States

%
45Registered Democrats · 45%
31Registered Republicans · 31%
24Unaffiliated Voters · 24%
0in total 100 %

The findingRegistered Democrats accounted for the largest share of early participants in these states, followed by Republicans and unaffiliated voters.

  • The share of early ballots cast by voter registration status among 16 million early voters in 27 reporting states as of October 27.
  • Party Registration — The political party a voter listed on their registration form, which does not force them to vote for that party
  • Early registration shares show which groups showed up early but cannot show candidate votes or predict the final outcome.

From the Editor’s Diary

Early voting statistics measure the calendar of civic participation, not the final verdict of an election. A high turnout before Election Day tells us when people voted, but only the full count after polls close will reveal who won.

Who's involved

  • University of Florida Election Lab

    Academic research group that tracks national voting numbers

    goal → Publish accurate turnout data so the public understands how many people have cast ballots

  • United States state and local election administrators

    Public officials who manage voter rolls and voting sites

    goal → Run fair elections, protect secret ballots and report accurate results

  • Democratic Party

    Major political party seeking majorities in Congress

    goal → Turn early voter turnout into enough actual candidate votes to win office

  • Republican Party

    Major political party defending congressional majorities

    goal → Mobilize voters on Election Day to overcome early Democratic participation

  • Michael McDonald

    University of Florida professor who runs the Election Lab tracker

    goal → Track national turnout and caution observers against misreading participation as a victory

  • L2 and TargetSmart

    Commercial voter-data firms modeling likely voting behavior

    goal → Estimate voter political leanings in states that do not track party registration

  • Associated Press, ABC News and NPR

    National news organizations covering election trends

    goal → Explain voting trends clearly without mistaking early participation for counted votes

  • Charles Stewart

    Massachusetts Institute of Technology election data scientist

    goal → Distinguish between a genuinely larger turnout and voters who simply chose to vote earlier

In short

Early voting numbers cannot tell us who will win an election, because the secret ballot protects which candidate each person chose. The true winner will be decided only after all regular Election Day ballots are counted on November 3.

Right now, the final outcome remains entirely uncertain because millions of Americans still plan to vote in person on Election Day, when Republicans historically turn out in large numbers.

More than 34 million Americans cast ballots before October 28 in the 2026 midterms, which decide control of the United States Congress. In states tracking party registration, registered Democrats turned out in large numbers. But a voter registered with one party can easily vote for another candidate, and millions of independent voters report no party at all.

How it unfolded

01

North Carolina Distributes the First Mail Ballots

2026-09-04 – 2026-09-04

The voting cycle opened quietly when North Carolina began mailing absentee ballots to voters who requested them. State election officials announced the release two days earlier, setting the earliest administrative date for this midterm. Voters received three choices: return a ballot by mail, cast one in person at early sites, or go to the polls on Election Day.

3 sources
02

In-Person Voting Begins Across the Country

2026-09-18 – 2026-09-22

In-person voting opened in mid-September as Virginia welcomed voters directly at polling sites, while Minnesota and South Dakota offered in-person absentee options. Across the nation, 47 states permitted early voting without requiring a special excuse. Each state used its own rules, meaning higher turnout in one state often reflected easier access rather than greater partisan excitement.

3 sources
03

Key Battleground States Set Turnout Records

2026-10-13 – 2026-10-20

Turnout rose sharply once heavily populated swing states opened their polling stations in mid-October. Georgia broke its first-day midterm record with nearly 189,000 in-person voters, quickly surpassing one million early ballots within a week. National participation passed 12.6 million ballots as Texas and North Carolina joined in, prompting early speculation about which party was ahead.

5 sources
04

Early Democratic Turnout Meets Voting Habits

2026-10-22 – 2026-10-23

By late October, more than 18 million Americans had voted, with data showing a higher proportion of registered Democrats casting ballots than at this stage in recent elections. Yet election researchers cautioned that early participation does not reveal candidate choice. Democrats often vote early or by mail, while Republicans typically favor voting in person on Election Day itself.

3 sources
05

High Early Turnout Reflects State Election Rules

2026-10-24 – 2026-10-26

Turnout continued climbing across the South, with Texas recording more than 4.2 million votes in its first six days and South Carolina setting a midterm early-voting record. Election administrators warned that large numbers do not guarantee record overall turnout once polls close. In many cases, these figures simply showed that regular voters were choosing to vote earlier under new, convenient rules.

3 sources
06

Millions of Ballots Cast Without Revealing Winners

2026-10-27 – 2026-10-28

National early voting passed 34 million by October 27, with registered Democrats making up 45 percent of early voters in 27 reporting states, compared with 31 percent for Republicans. In Florida, however, registered Republicans narrowly led early participation. Ballots remain sealed until after polls close, meaning early numbers show only who participated, not who won.

6 sources

We checked again

No new developments at this moment.

Checked CBS News' October 28 election coverage and the University of Florida Election Lab tracker: more than 35 million early ballots were confirmed as of October 27, but no developments strictly after October 28 are verifiable as of this check. Sources: https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/2026-elections-midtems-house-senate-trump/ and https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2026-early-voting/

Where things stand

Early voting continues across the United States ahead of Election Day on November 3. More than 34 million people have cast ballots, and in several states that publish party registration, Democrats make up a larger share of early voters than Republicans.

These statistics show participation, not results. Party registration does not guarantee candidate support, and many voters remain unaffiliated. Furthermore, Republicans often turn out heavily on Election Day. Official candidate votes remain secret and will be tallied only after the polls close.

US midterm elections 2026

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Sources